• 96% of exploration and production companies expect to increase production over the next year, while 90% of energy services respondents anticipate higher activity in 2027.
• 76% of institutional investors have become more bullish on energy over the past six months, and 63% expect Canadian energy equities to outperform the broader market over the next year.
• Growth spending ranks as institutional investors' preferred use of capital for the first time since the survey began in 2021.
• 53% of producers and institutional investors expect WTI crude to average above US$75 per barrel over the next three to five years, up from 43% in spring 2026.
• Expectations for major energy infrastructure projects have improved, although federal energy policy remains the industry's top-ranked risk.

CALGARY, AB, Oct. 14, 2026 /CNW/ -- Canadian energy companies are preparing to increase production and investment in 2027, while institutional investors are showing a stronger preference for growth spending, according to ATB Cormark Capital Markets' Fall 2026 Energy Sector Survey ("Energy Survey," or the "Survey").

The findings point to a significant shift from the more cautious outlook recorded a year ago. Nearly all surveyed producers expect to increase production, energy services companies anticipate higher activity, and institutional investors now rank growth spending ahead of share repurchases and debt repayment for the first time since the Survey began in 2021. Expectations for major energy infrastructure projects have also improved.

"A year ago, the industry was much more cautious. Today, we're seeing producers plan for higher output, service companies anticipate more activity, and investors put growth back at the top of their priorities," said Darren Eurich, CEO of ATB Cormark Capital Markets. "The outlook for major infrastructure projects is also improving, which matters for an industry that needs access to more markets."

The Survey points to approximately 5%-10% growth in Canadian field activity and E&P capital spending in 2027. The outlook for growth in 2027 comes despite expectations for lower oil prices, suggesting that economics support growth even following a normalization in global crude supplies.

"What's notable is that companies are planning to grow even with an expectation that oil prices will normalize into a lower range over the next year," said Tim Monachello, Managing Director, Institutional Research at ATB Cormark Capital Markets. "Institutional investors are also becoming less defensive, preferring growth spending over buybacks and debt repayment for the first time in the Survey's history. This meaningful shift both validates the strengthening outlook for the sector, and signals the market's support for the industry's pursuit of growth."

Conducted from September 14 to September 28, 2026, the semi-annual Survey gathered 91 responses from executives representing 22 energy services companies and 27 exploration and production (E&P) companies, along with 42 institutional investors.

Among the survey findings:

Producers and service companies expect more activity in 2027: Among E&P respondents, 96% expect to increase production over the next year, compared with 88% in fall 2025. Oil-weighted producers anticipate production growth of approximately 10%, while gas-weighted producers expect growth of approximately 5%.

More than half (56%) of E&P respondents expect higher exploration and development spending in 2027, 81% of energy services respondents expect activity to increase from current levels, and 90% of energy services respondents anticipate more customer activity on average in 2027 than in 2026.

Energy services companies see rising demand and tighter capacity: The outlook for energy services has improved considerably from a year ago, when companies were facing pressure on margins. In the latest Survey, 71% of services respondents report an improved business outlook over the past three months, with none reporting deterioration, while a majority (57%) now expect margins to improve over the next six months.

For the first time since fall 2022, more energy services respondents report excess demand than excess capacity, indicating a tightening market for services.

Companies expect higher activity to support improvements in pricing and margins, although rising input costs remain a concern.

Investors prioritize growth spending and see value in Canadian energy equities: Institutional investor sentiment toward energy has strengthened over the past six months, with 76% reporting a more bullish outlook and 61% having increased their net energy exposure.

Nearly four in five institutional investors consider Canadian energy equities undervalued, while 63% expect the sector to outperform the S&P/TSX Composite over the next year. That compares with 76% who expected outperformance in spring 2026.

One of the Survey's most significant findings is a change in how institutional investors want energy companies to allocate capital. Growth spending is now their leading preference, with 41% ranking it first, up from 18% in spring 2026.

This marks the first time since the Survey began in 2021 that growth spending has ranked ahead of share repurchases and debt repayment among institutional investors.

Longer-term oil price expectations rise despite anticipated near-term declines: While most respondents expect oil prices to ease over the next year, expectations for longer-term pricing have improved.

Among E&P and institutional investor respondents, 53% expect West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to average above US$75 per barrel over the next three to five years. That compares with 43% in spring 2026 and 38% in fall 2025.

In the near term, 61% expect oil prices to decline over the next year from an average of approximately US$98 per barrel during the Survey period.

Natural gas expectations are more positive in the short term, with 42% anticipating higher prices and just 6% expecting a decline. Longer-term natural gas price expectations, however, have softened.

Major energy projects are seen as more likely to proceed, but policy risks remain: Survey respondents have become more positive about the prospects for major Canadian energy infrastructure projects, including new oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity.

The federal government's approach to expanding the Canadian energy industry is viewed positively by 89% of respondents. Strong majorities also expect positive final investment decisions for Pacific Link/Pathways, Prairie Connector and Ksi Lisims.

West Coast LNG expansion continues to rank as the industry's leading opportunity, reflecting the importance respondents place on expanding access to international markets.

Despite this more favourable outlook, federal energy and environmental policies remain the industry's top-ranked risk, although concerns have moderated from previous surveys.

Middle East supply disruptions increase interest in Canadian energy: Disruptions to Middle Eastern crude oil and LNG exports are influencing how investors assess Canadian energy opportunities.

Among institutional investors, 79% say constraints on Middle Eastern exports have made them more likely to invest in Canadian energy companies.

Across all respondent groups, 72% believe long-term global crude supply and demand balances will be tighter than they expected before the conflict.

These findings suggest geopolitical supply concerns are becoming another factor in how investors assess Canada's energy sector and its potential to serve international markets.

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